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After the subprime crisis erupted, mortgage and consumer debt was paid down by households either with their savings or by default.

That may work in the short term, but if sovereign default risks materialize - as my research with Carmen Reinhart suggests is likely - the ECB will in turn have to be recapitalized.

The second lesson, and the one most pertinent to Europe now, concerns the crucial role played by the default scenario.

In other words, a successful buyback is a preamble to default.

Monitoring external balances can be an effective tool to measure future default risks, since sustained current-account deficits lead to a growth in net foreign debt.

As a result, Argentina must either pay the holdouts in full or default on the new bonds.

All agree that Greece needs an orderly restructuring, because a disorderly default could cause a eurozone meltdown.

Higher exports will also generate the foreign exchange needed to resume external debt payments, now in default.

The trouble began a dozen years ago, when Argentina had no choice but to devalue its currency and default on its debt.

The risk of default or debt restructuring induces creditors to be more careful in their lending decisions.

Argentina's collapse incited the largest default in history.

Such attempts at blame-shifting are misguided: one can understand the default as the consequence of economic mistakes made over a decade.

Fears of a default abound.

Currencies fell, interest rates rose, and credit default swaps soared.

Of course, markets would view any rescheduling without a credible adjustment program merely as a prelude to a real default later on, thus leading to an even higher risk premium.

That's why market interest rates on privately held Greek bonds and prices for credit-default swaps indicate that a massive default is coming.

And a massive default, together with a very large sustained cut in the annual budget deficit, is, in fact, needed to restore Greek fiscal sustainability.

If that trade gap persists, Greece will have to borrow the full amount from foreign lenders every year in the future, even if the post-default budget deficits could be financed by borrowing at home.

President Rafael Correa had been toying with default since the 2006 presidential campaign (debt repudiation was part of his platform), and quickly earned a CCC rating from Fitch.

The default threat was a way to depress bond prices in secondary markets, only to buy them back at a discount through the back door.

This is particularly notable, given that Ecuador's was perhaps the first opportunistic default (triggered by unwillingness, rather than inability, to pay) in recent history.

Indeed, almost two years of default threats by Correa were not enough to elicit a deep discount.

Only the probability of a default - and the goal of avoiding even deeper haircuts - can induce investors to liquidate their positions at a discount.

But mass atrocity crimes did happen in Sri Lanka, there was moral default all around, and if we do not learn from this past, we will indeed be condemned to repeat it.

But the insistence on orthodoxy is still sufficiently strong in China to remain the default defense against political critics.

A debt buyback is something of a Catch 22: to succeed in inducing a haircut, it needs to profit from the default fears that it intends to alleviate.

Many homeowners who can afford to make their mortgage payments will choose to default, move to rental housing, and wait to purchase until house prices have declined further.

As homeowners with large negative equity default, the foreclosed homes contribute to the excess supply that drives prices down further.

Given the increasingly close financial and economic linkages between euro-zone members, rising government debt in even one EMU country can have serious consequences for all members, because no member state will allow another to default.